VICFORESTS

June 11 2011: Vicforests Investigates Timber Claim

February 23 2011: Vicforests Operations Condemned

August 12 2010: Greens Hail Win On Logging

September 15 2009: Judge Likens Gippsland Logging to the Somme

Vicforests set to increase native forest logging in 2009 through the controversial JoSHL model.

10 REASONS TO REJECT THE JoSHL MODEL

1. JoSHL shifts Eastern Victoria from regionally based forest management to commercially based forest management with the Aggregation of 7 FMAs into 2 Timber Supply Zones

2. JoSHL fails to protect endangered species

3. The JoSHL model substantially reduces Rotation Age.

4. The JoSHL model says thinning volumes are too difficult to predict.

5. The JoSHL model assumes 100% Regeneration success.

6. The JoSHL model has 20 % of timber located in small, isolated and low yielding areas that are probably only viable under very favourable conditions.

7. JoSHL model constrained to meet or exceed current sawlog volumes.

8. The JoSHL model fails to adequately address fire risk.

9. Central Highlands young ash regrowth project produces unusual yield predictions.

10. There has been no public consultation about all of the above assumptions which were agreed to by VicForests and DSE during in house processes.

1. JoSHL shifts Eastern Victoria from regionally based forest management to commercially based forest management with the Aggregation of 7 FMAs into 2 Timber Supply Zones.

The aggregation of FMAs in Eastern Victoria came about because of recommendations resulting from a report VicForests commissioned Poyry to undertake (p.2 JoSHL ). Poyry Forest Industries (ex Jaakko Poyry) have a reputation for endorsing intense forms of industrial forestry. JoSHL was supposed to explore the aggregation of FMAs into two Timber Supply Zones and this was identified as “a significant departure from the Forest management Area approach” (p.5 JoSHL). The smaller FMAs are not considered appropriate scales under current harvesting practices and there was an expectation that this had a negative effect on efficiency. (p.7 JoSHL) Without any public consultation DSE and VicForests got together and decided that regionally based FMAs could be done away with and Victoria could shift to managing huge areas of forest with little bioregional or catchment context. The JoSHL model removed the important social requirement for local wood to go to local mills as this consideration was difficult to model and not considered important by the modellers There are no new forest areas in the JoSHL model but by wiping out regional considerations more timber can be harvested (see table below). If we stick with regionally based sustainable yield & keep FMA boundaries

If we move to commercially based sustainable yield and remove regional boundaries (JoSHL p.15)

2. JoSHL fails to protect endangered species. The JoSHL model does not include proposed changes to the protection of some endangered species.

The JoSHL report states “Proposed changes to protection of threatened species, including Long-footed Potoroo, Leadbeater’s Possum and rainforest buffers were not included, as DSE had not completed reviews of the associated Action Statements by this time (JoSHL p. 4).

3. The JoSHL model substantially reduces Rotation Age.

In the Victorian Timber Industry Strategy (August 1986) Mrs Kirner stated “Sustainable volumes of sawlogs from mature forests will be calculated for minimum rotations of 80 to 150 years depending upon forest type.” The table provided in Appendix 1 of the JoSHL report titled “Harvest ages used in model” shows that the JoSHL modelling was based on much lower minimum harvest ages of 60 to 105 years. Furthermore the JoSHL model includes VicForests Draft thinning strategy which reduces harvest age in thinned areas by a further 10 years, 45 years for ash and 60 years for mixed species (p.29 JoSHL).

1986 80 to 150 year (1st TIS) Mrs Kirner

2009 45 to 60 year (JoSHL)? Mr Jennings.

4. The JoSHL model says thinning volumes are too difficult to predict.

Although important, estimates of sawlog production from thinning operations have not been included given the relatively low volumes produced and the difficulty in predicting sawlog production from thinning operations. (JoSHL p.10.) Six thinning coupes in the Marysville Forest District (Central FMA) that are listed on this years WUPs, show that very large sawlog volumes are predicted to come from VicForests thinning operations, this is contrary to the JoSHL comment above. The Monitoring Annual Harvesting Performance (MAHP) report identified that in 2006-07 VicForests completed thinning operations in 52 coupes but they only supplied complete information for 4 coupes. (p.26 MAHP August 2008).

5. The JoSHL model assumes 100% Regeneration success.

The JoSHL report states “Model assumes all harvested areas are fully regenerated and identifies regeneration requirements (JoSHL Appendix 4 p.33). In a perfect world all forest areas would regenerate wonderfully following logging operations but this is certainly not the case in Victoria today. DSE has known about and documented problems with regeneration for decades. The Expert Independent Advisory Panel (EIAP) found that “There are currently a large number of coupes which require further remedial treatment to achieve adequate regeneration. There are also significant areas that have no stocking records or are overdue for surveys. Backlog regeneration has existed for a number of years, and the issue will continue to remain until funding and resources are made available. (EIAP, p.9 MAHP Review June 2008).

6. The JoSHL model has 20 % of timber located in small, isolated and low yielding areas that are probably only viable under very favourable conditions.

The EIAP correctly identified that with the JoSHL model “About 20% of the timber potentially available lies in coups that are small, low in volume or distant from roads or mills, and may be viable only under favourable conditions. Effective utilisation of this resource depends on tactical planning by VicForests, the willingness of the industry to collaborate and the buoyancy of the timber market.” (p.38 JoSHL Appendix 6 EIAP Report) VicForests are simply not experienced enough or ready to provide an adequate level of tactical planning for effective and equitable utilisation of small isolated and low yielding areas. This is evidenced by the following statement made by Dr David Pollard (CEO VicForests), in a December 2008 presentation to the Legislative Council Standing Committee on Finance and Public Administration, “It means a number of things. It means that we have to look at stands of timber that have in the past been unmerchantable or less merchantable and to attempt to make them more merchantable. It is an attempt to find better uses for less commercial stands of timber. Now, in principle that is possible, but organisationally we are only now beginning to turn our collective attention to it” It is difficult to imagine that the industries willingness to collaborate will remain very high especially in East Gippsland as VicForests increasingly push logging contractors into high risk logging in low return areas. This scenario was played out in the Wombat Forest during the 1990s when DSE forced contractors to harvest increasingly uneconomical areas. The outcome was Wombat Forest was substantially over logged and this disgraceful mismanagement led to the collapse of the local timber industry. In relation to timber harvesting in small isolated and low yielding areas the “buoyancy of the timber market” refers mostly to the buoyancy of pulp markets. A Google search quickly uncovers that “The outlook for world pulp markets in 2009 is not rosy.” (Dow Jones Newswires 6/1/2009). Pulp prices have plunged in China (see graph below) and a massive pulp expansion from South America has started to come on line. The market is anything but buoyant when it comes to pulp prices and volumes.

Pulp price in China has plunged since second half 2008 http://events.cbichina.com/con/webinar/pulppaper/index.html

7. JoSHL model constrained to meet or exceed current sawlog volumes.

The primary constraints placed on the JoSHL model are biased towards timber given they are aimed at maintaining, at least the current annual sawlog supply over a 100 year period. The JoSHL report states; · Model optimised to produce maximum discounted (3%) D+ sawlog over a 100-year planning horizon and . · Existing sawlog commitments for ash and mixed species met or exceeded within each timber supply zone (JoSHL p.13) If the JoSHL model had been set with constraints that limit native forest logging in water catchments to a minimum harvest age of 80 to 150 years, or a constraint to maximise carbon storage the overall results would be considerably less timber volumes. Water catchment protection and carbon storage are very topical issues, forestry cannot comply with the Sustainability Charter if these matters are not properly considered. The EIAP say that DSE needs to plan to begin reporting the carbon sequestered in Victoria’s forests, if they wish to remain relevant in a dynamic and changing environment. (EIAP, p.12 MAHP Review June 2008)

8. The JoSHL model fails to adequately address fire risk.

The JoSHL model does not address the very real risks related to future fires and the potential for wildfire to have a major impact on the timber resource. The catastrophic 2009 fires have clearly exposed this deficiency in the JoSHL model. Failure to properly account for fire risk is especially inappropriate with climate change analysts predicting increased incidence and intensity of forest fires.

9. Central Highlands young ash regrowth project produces unusual yield predictions.

Existing yield predictions for this young ash regrowth are based on the assumption that they will be equivalent to the average SFRI predictions for the current 1939 regrowth of the same forest type and site quality. (p.12 JoSHL) Given the long term drought it seems pretty unlikely that regrowth forests established in recent times could attain growth rates observed in 1939 regrowth areas that were established during a much wetter period.

Strangely the predicted sawlog yields from the Young Ash project are in fact substantially higher not lower than the SFRI 1939 regrowth predictions. Some very vague reasons have been given for the yield prediction anomaly in the Young Ash Regrowth project but none of the reasons put forward were tested to look at possible effects on the model and some of the reasons put forward are somewhat obscure.

10. There has been no public consultation about all of the above assumptions which were agreed to by VicForests and DSE during in house processes.

Heyfield timber mill owned by ITC. Hundreds of metres of sawntimber lie in this companies timber yards. ITC is pushing for certification of Victoria's native forests by the Forest Stewardship Council in order to export their product to Europe. ITC have made a killing from salvage logging in the past few years. ITC and PaperlinX are the major pushers for native forest certification in Victoria. ITC will make a killing if JoSHL gets up.

Central Gippsland indicating location of planned logging coupes due to be logged by Single Tree Group Selection in 2008/09.

Native forest near Mt Bulldog 4km north of Coongulla (on the north shore of Lake Glenmaggie) in Central Gippsland. Approximately 700 hectares of native forest will be logged in 2008 at and near this location by Single Tree Group Selection. All up 5000ha of native forest is planned to be logged this way in 2008/9.

Native forest near Mt Bulldog Central Gippsland due to be logged 08/09.

Native forest near Mt Bulldog Central Gippsland due to be logged 08/09.

Native forest near Mt Bulldog Central Gippsland due to be logged 08/09.

Native forest near Mt Bulldog Central Gippsland due to be logged 08/09.

Native forest about 3km north west of Valencia Creek in Central Gippsland. About 1000ha of this native forest is planned to belogged via Single Species Group Selection at this location in 2008/9.

Native forest Mount Angus Creek Catchment/Avon River due to be logged in 2008/9

Native forest Mount Angus Creek Catchment/Avon River due to be logged in 2008/9

Fire damaged forest 2km north of Cowwarr Weir Central Gippsland planned to be logged in 2008/9. About 500ha at this location alone is planned to be logged.

200 ha of Fire damaged forest due to be logged by Vicforests in 2008/9 ~2km south west of Seaton in Central Gippsland.